WEEKLY ANALYSIS 0512
ANOTHER UNSHAKABLE WEEKLY BULLISH PERFORMANCE
Going forward I will not publish on a regular basis the weekly technical analysis since during the weekends I want to spend more time with my family. I will maintain the daily updates and short-term setups, which I publish on Twitter and Stocktwits.
This weekly analysis is just a brief one.
The weekly candlestick per se is not suggesting that the current up leg from the April 19 low is over. Therefore next week it is probable that price will test the immediate resistance located at the upper Bollinger Band. Usually at the weekly upper Bollinger Band it would be reasonable to expect a buying exhaustion.
However even with a weekly reversal at the upper BB as long as bears do not reclaim the previous resistance now transformed into support at 1597.35 I expect a greater extended move to the upside.
A weekly close below the rising 10 wma which today stands at 1576 will confirm that the advance from the November lows is over.
Therefore my preferred scenario calls for a potential short-term top somewhere above/at the Bollinger Band. If the following pullback does not breach 1597 (Weekly close) then I expect at least one more up leg ===> From the April 19 low price will infold a Zig Zag or an Ending Diagonal.
- If price unfolds a Zig Zag then the EWP from the November lows will be a Triple Zig Zag:
- If price unfolds an Ending Diagonal then the EWP from the November lows will be a Double Zig Zag:
Since both options are corrective I maintain unchanged the long-term scenario of the Triple Zig Zag wave (X) As I have discussed in previous weekly updates since the advance from the November lows is not impulsive (Assumed wave Z) I am suggesting that it should unfold an Ending Diagonal, if this is the case price is involved in the late stages of the wave (I)
Regarding the short-term price action, I maintain the Double Zig Zag count. Thursday´s Harami candlestick has been aborted; therefore if 1623 is not breached instead of a shallow downward corrective wave (B) it seems more likely either a Flat or a Triangle.
The pending wave (Y) up should establish the top of the wave (A) of the TZZ option or the wave (I) of an Ending Diagonal of the DZZ option